Progress in Agriculture: The Lord's Hand at Work

From the beginning of recorded history until the 1700s, little had changed in agriculture and food production. About the time of the Restoration, technological development took off, with the rate of progress, as detailed in several indexes, mirroring that of the progress of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Gloomy theories by early economists that the production of food is inelastic, and therefore humankind is doomed to a subsistence level of existence have proven to be wrong. Agricultural productivity has risen dramatically, parallel to the growth of the Church. Building on earlier progress, which has saved millions of lives, agriculture is moving on with developments that will adequately feed all of Heavenly Father’s children. “The earth is full, and there is enough and to spare…” (D&C 104:17).

Introduction

In 1798, just seven years before the birth of Joseph Smith, Thomas R. Malthus published An Essay on the Principle of Population, surmising that population growth would always outrun food production.[1] The main idea was that population growth follows a geometric progression (upward curve – such as 1, 2, 4, 16…) while food production follows an arithmetic progression (straight line – such as 1, 2, 3, 4…) at best. This was a reasonable conclusion based on conditions at that time. Famine and food riots were frequent in Europe in the 1790s[2] and the French revolution nine years before had been caused in part by the high price of bread caused by crop failures. Thankfully, in the 200 years since Malthus’ prediction of our demise, food production has increased more than tenfold while population has increased only six-fold. In later editions of his essay, Malthus softened his predictions, making room for increasing rates of food production.

The history of humankind’s ability to feed itself contains more lessons on human nature than just the law of the harvest. At times, when obeying God’s commandment to multiply and replenish the earth has seemed too difficult, many have suggested that abandoning that commandment was the solution. Some people have regularly argued that we have not yet beaten Malthus[3], often restating Malthus’ original prediction almost verbatim. These dire predictions are used to argue for limiting population growth out of concern for depletion of resources. Nonetheless, year after year, food production outpaces population rather than the other way around.

The future looks better when viewed through the perspective of a promise made to Joseph Smith 185 years ago. “For the earth is full, and there is enough and to spare; yea, I prepared all things, and have given unto the children of men to be agents unto themselves” (D&C 104:17). This abundance mentality aligns much better with the annually recurring evidence that indeed there is enough and to spare. Agriculture has repeatedly mustered the ability to increase food supplies for a growing concentration of God’s children.

Agriculture Through Time[4]

1800 and Before. Agricultural practices during Joseph Smith’s youth were similar to those during Christ’s life. Methods of production had changed little in the previous two hundred years and even less from then back to the beginning of recorded history. Oxen and horses provided power. Land was still cleared by hand, and crude wooden plows were used to break up the ground. Metal plow shears did not yet exist. Seeds were distributed by hand. Cultivation was with hand hoes. Hay and grain were harvested by hand with sickles. Thrashing of grain was by hand. Varieties of plants and breeds of animals were those that had been used for generations. Farms had to be small enough that family members and a limited number of hired hands could harvested them.

At the beginning of the nineteenth century, 90 percent of the 5.3 million people in the United States of America (U.S.) lived and worked on farms. Most of them produced little more than enough food for their own families. They worked hard to provide barely adequate living conditions for themselves. As was the case for the Smith family, children in farm families were expected to be part of the labor force of the farm. Additional off-farm work was often necessary to survive. The idea of romantic agrarianism has its roots in imagination rather than in reality.

Changes Near 1820. The most significant event to happen on Earth in two millennia, the appearance of God the Father and Jesus Christ to Joseph Smith, happened in 1820. Their visit ushered in the restoration of the gospel and started a cascade of things that had been reserved to come forth in the dispensation of the fullness of times. The results of that appearance have been unfolding since 1820 and continue today.

Along with the obvious religious results of the restoration, other dramatic changes began in about 1820. Careful analysis identifies 1820 as an important breakpoint in the world’s economic history.

[A]n obscure Scottish economist named Angus Maddison[5], … found a startling discontinuity in world economic growth around 1820: Before that date, growth was essentially nonexistent, and after, sustained and vigorous.[6]

Until approximately 1820, per capita world economic growth—the single best way of measuring human material progress—registered near zero. In the centuries after the Fall of Rome, Europe’s wealth actually declined, as numerous critical technologies simply disappeared…[7]

Beginning around 1820, the pace of economic advance picked up noticeably, making the world a better place to live in. What happened? An explosion in technological innovation the likes of which had never before been seen.[8]

Even the most wildly optimistic estimates suggest no more than a doubling or tripling in global per capita GDP between the year A.D. 1 and A.D. 1000, versus the eightfold increase in the 172 years following 1820. During this same 172-year period, per capita GDP in the U.K. grew tenfold; in the U.S., twentyfold.[9]

Agricultural production practices also made a sharp upward turn near 1820. The first changes appeared in the mechanization of farming. After centuries of plowing with wooden plows, an iron plow with interchangeable parts was patented in 1819. By 1834, a plow faced with steel blades was being manufactured. In that same year, Cyrus McCormick patented a mechanical reaper. John Deere began selling steel plows and a threshing machine was patented in 1837. A grain drill to replace hand planting was patented in 1841. In the year of Joseph Smith’s martyrdom, 1844, a mowing machine was patented.

All this mechanization affected the amount of labor needed for farming. By 1850, the population of the U.S. had reached 23 million people, and only 64 percent of them worked on farms. Each farmer produced enough for 1.6 people, making it possible to provide some comforts for themselves. The transfer of labor from farms to factories allowed the industrial revolution that had begun in England to spread to the U.S.

A significant factor in the growth of agriculture was the progress made in transportation. As cites grew, the ability to produce food in one place and consume it in another became increasingly important. Turnpikes, which were early dirt toll roads, began to move west about 1800. They increased with western settlement and improved over time to make them more usable during bad weather.

The Erie Canal ran 363 miles from Albany, NY on the Hudson River to Buffalo, NY on Lake Erie. It was constructed between 1817 and 1835 and opened for use in 1825. Spurring growth and changing the economy all along its route, it passed through the north edge of Palmyra, NY. The system of transportation canals continued until the 1840s, connecting many interior agricultural areas with the east coast and the Atlantic Ocean.

The rail transportation era in the U.S. began when Peter Cooper’s steam engine, the Tom Thumb, ran for 13 miles in 1825. Tracks laid reached 3000 miles by 1840. During the 1840s, lines crossed the Appalachian Mountains, connecting eastern cities to the agricultural heartland in the new west.

From Joseph Smith’s Time Until Now. Agricultural innovations have continued at an ever-accelerating rate from the time of Joseph Smith until today. In 1862, at a challenging time in U.S. history, President Abraham Lincoln took three steps that were very important to agriculture. He signed the Homestead Act; established the U.S. Department of Agriculture (U.S.D.A.); and signed the Morrill Act, establishing the Land Grant University system.

The Homestead Act allowed people to gain title to as much as 640 acres of land by living on and improving the land. It proved invaluable in helping people to become established on western U.S. lands, including the “Mormon” pioneers.

The U.S.D.A. has grown in importance and scope since it began. It has served as a source of both innovation and stability for U.S. agriculture. During one of its most significant periods of growth, Elder Ezra Taft Benson, an apostle at the time and later President of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, spent eight years as Secretary of Agriculture.[10]

Land grant universities began as just that, a university in each state funded by the sale of public land.[11] Many years went by after passage of the Morrill Act before most states founded their university, but eventually, there was a university in each state. The concept of what these universities would become developed over time. Twenty-five years after the Morrill Act, in 1887, the Hatch Act established agricultural experiment stations to be associated with each of these universities. In 1914, fifty-two years after the Morrill Act, the Smith-Lever Act added a cooperative extension service to each land grant university, completing the picture. Land grant universities were to provide education in agriculture, mechanical arts and liberal arts to the children of the common people, use research to answer questions and solve problems related primarily to agriculture, and share all of this with practicing farmers. The degree of success achieved by the land grant universities cannot be overstated. Everyone has been a beneficiary of the work of these universities either directly or through those who were personally helped.

John A. Widtsoe is an example of the good done by the land grant universities. Dr. Widtsoe started his professional career in 1894 as professor of chemistry in the new Utah Agricultural College and chemist of the Utah Agricultural Experiment Station at Logan, Utah.[12] He was later Director of the Station, then President of the College. He also served two other universities before being called to be an apostle.[13]

Some of his thoughts during his early years show the value of the land grant philosophy to development of agriculture.

[T]he sisterhood of land grant colleges…[was] to teach the possible application of knowledge to the respective pursuits of the common man, so that the toil to make a living, whatever the work, might be raised to professional dignity, and at the same time be made more profitable. In short, they were dedicated to practical education–to the vision of a nation, each member of which had been educated in the knowledge of the day as well as trained for his task.[14]

His thinking extended the land grant vision. Twenty years before extension work became part of the mission of land grant universities, he started an extension program in Utah.

Carrying the principles of modern agriculture to the farmers always seemed important to me. Unused truth has little value. Farmers’ institute work, now known as agricultural extension work, was therefore begun and carried on with much vigor. As time permitted, with specialists from the Station staff, I traveled over the State discussing with groups of farmers their problems. While we taught them something, they in turn set our faces towards problems to be solved.[15]

Agricultural productivity and efficiency have continued to grow since these early advances. Progress has been steadily accelerating. A succinct gauge is the fact that of the more than 324 million people living in the U.S., less than 1 percent now claim farming as their occupation[16] and each farmer produces enough food to feed 165 people. One farmer produced enough food to feed less than 50 people as recently as 1960. [17]

Unlike Malthus’ 1798 prediction that population growth follows a geometric progression while food production follows no better than an arithmetic progression, it has turned out that for more than 200 years both curves have been geometric, with the rate of increase in food production not only matching but exceeding the rate of population growth.

Today’s food system is complicated. Food is produced, processed, transported and sold by a whole stream of people other than those who eat the food. The whole system is carried out by a small percentage of the population. Safe, sanitary food of nearly infinite variety is available in every season. Diets are more nutritious and interesting than those living two hundred years ago could ever have imagined. In 1820 and before, food was produced, stored, prepared and consumed by the same people. Almost the whole population was involved in producing food. When we talk about the good old days, we overlook much of what those times were. The hard physical work, shorter lives, poor nutrition and many other facts of the past do not often come to mind.

Among the many steps taken to make food availability what it is today, were a few giant steps.[18] One of these was the introduction of hybrid vigor in plant breeding. Another was the discovery of a process for capturing nitrogen from air to make ammonia, including that used in nitrogen fertilizer. The most significant single leap forward was the Green Revolution of the 1940s, 50s, and 60s. Genes bred into cereal crops by laboriously crossbreeding thousands of plant varieties from around the world made it possible to save over one billion people from starvation.[19]

Norman Borlaug, often cited as the father of the green revolution, went on to promote a new revolution that will dwarf those that preceded it. With the ability to map and understand genes, specific desired characteristics can be incorporated into plants, animals, and microorganisms. Instead of lengthy, hit-and-miss, trial-and-error processes, specific genes are selected and inserted where they are needed. These powerful tools make it possible to protect against diseases, insects, and drought and to improve the nutritional content of food.[20] Since the first genetically engineered seeds became available in 1996, their use has proliferated. In 2017, more than 90 percent of soybeans and corn seeds planted in the U. S. and many other countries were tailor-made to enhance various characteristics.[21] The ability to produce more food from fewer resources is the key to feeding the future population of the world.[22]

Reviewing the long story of increasing agricultural productivity raises the question of when the resources necessary for such activities will run out. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (N.A.S.S.) of the U.S.D.A. collects and maintains agriculture data.[23] The acreage of corn planted and the amount of corn harvested is available from 1866. The amount of land used to grow corn increased from 72.4 million acres in 1950 to 82.7 million acres in 2017. During this same time, the amount of corn produced increased from 2.8 billion bushels to 14.6 billion bushels. Corn produced increased 428 percent, while land used for corn production increased 14percent. Bushels of corn produced per acre of land increased 4.6 times, from 38.2 bushels per acre to 176.6 bushels per acre – just between 1950 and 2017. Another way of looking at this data is to say that if there had been no improvements in plant breeding, growing practices, etc. since 1950, the corn grown in 2017 would have occupied 382 million acres of land – 4.6 times the 82.7 million acres actually used.

The dairy industry provides a similar example. The number of dairy cows and the amount of milk produced for every year since 1924 are known. This data shows that the number of cows in the U.S. decreased from 21.4 million in 1950 to 9.3 million in 2017. During this same time, the amount of milk produced increased from 117 billion pounds to 215 billion pounds. Milk produced increased by 85percent while the number of cows decreased by 57percent. Pounds of milk produced per cow increased 4.3 times, from 5,314 pounds per cow in 1950 to 22,936 pounds per cow in 2017. If there had been no improvements in breeding, feeding, management practices, etc. since 1950, the milk produced in 2017 would have employed 40.5 million cows – 4.3 times the 9.3 million dairy cows in the U.S. in 2017.

These two examples point out the enormous increases in productivity taking place in agriculture. The number of such examples extends to hundreds of products. The decrease in resources used for each unit of production over the last half-century is usually between fourfold and fivefold, as in these two examples. If these improvements in agricultural production had not taken place, more than four times as many acres would be farmland today, and there would be more than four times as many farm animals. There would, of course, be many more farmers too.

High production agriculture is the most crucial factor in maintaining natural resources. Inputs of all the common resources such as labor, land, equipment, and chemicals are decreasing as productivity increases.[24] The input that allows this explosion of productivity to take place is not more natural resources; it is knowledge. Just as the addition of knowledge allowed fibers made from sand to replace copper wires in communications, the addition of knowledge has replaced resources traditionally used in agriculture. Knowledge can replace raw materials[25], and the amount of knowledge available is rapidly increasing. In describing God’s revelation to him about the last days, Daniel wrote, “But thou, O Daniel, shut up the words, and seal the book, even to the time of the end: many shall run to and fro, and knowledge shall be increased.” (Daniel 12:4)

Increases in agricultural productivity have paralleled membership in the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.[26] Figure 1 shows this growth in membership along with the productivity gains for corn and milk discussed above. The correlation coefficient between membership and corn yields is 0.96, and that between membership and milk yields is 0.99. As tempting as it is to see this as proof of a cause and effect relationship, even correlations as tight as these oblige us to look further for such proof.

Brigham Young said, “The construction of the electric telegraph…is just as much a revelation from God as any ever given. The same is true with regard to making machinery, whether it be…a plow, harrow, rake…threshing machine, or anything else…”[27] It is difficult to believe that the tools that have been developed to accelerate and improve agriculture and food production since 1820 are not included in this statement.

The Earth is Full

The first commandment to Adam and Eve recorded in scripture directs them, and by implication, everyone since them, to be fruitful, multiply, replenish the earth, subdue the earth, and have dominion over other living things. “And God blessed them, and God said unto them, Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it: and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth” (Genesis 1:28)

The concept of subduing the earth and having dominion over nonhuman living things has become unacceptable to many in recent years. This has accompanied a gradual change in emphasis from disregard for resources toward preservation of all living species and their environment. John A. Widtsoe reminded us that, “Man has control over the earth. The Lord has given us mastery. We are not servants upon the face of the earth. We should use that mastery to preserve our heritage.”[28] God’s direction contains a balance between maintaining the earth and using it to maintain ourselves.

God informed Adam and Eve that the earth would provide everything necessary to sustain humankind.

And God said, Behold, I have given you every herb bearing seed, which is upon the face of all the earth, and every tree, in the which is the fruit of a tree yielding seed; to you it shall be for meat.

And to every beast of the earth, and to every fowl of the air, and to every thing that creepeth upon the earth, wherein there is life, I have given every green herb for meat: and it was so.

And God saw every thing that he had made, and, behold, it was very good…(Genesis 1:29-31).

It must be remembered though, as was also pointed out to Adam and Eve, that work is necessary to make this abundance available. “In the sweat of thy face shalt thou eat bread…(Genesis 3:19). With few exceptions such as providing manna for the children of Israel and oil and meal for Elijah and his host, God has required work for food.

Work by many people has allowed agriculture to keep up with population growth, and to improve diets beyond anything imaginable even a few years ago. The technology is available to allow everyone on earth to be well-fed if this technology were applied everywhere. However, even today’s technology will not be enough by 2050 when there are ten billion people to feed. We will have to continue working to stay ahead.

Though many continue to wait for the original predictions of Malthus to come true, others look at the evidence of the past 200 years and have faith in humankind’s ability to stay ahead of those dire predictions.[29],[30],[31] One such optimist was an economist named Julius Simon, who said,

This is my long-run forecast in brief. The material conditions of life will continue to get better for most people, in most countries, most of the time, indefinitely. Within a century or two, all nations and most of humanity will be at or above today’s Western living standards.[32]

The evidence suggests that this prediction is accurate, pointing to a future matching the promise made to Joseph Smith 175 years ago. “For the earth is full, and there is enough and to spare; yea, I prepared all things, and have given unto the children of men to be agents unto themselves” (D&C 104:17).

After being stagnant for at least several thousand years, growth in agriculture began to improve at about the time of Joseph Smith’s first vision. Its growth has accelerated since then, paralleling the growth of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. All indications are that both will continue to grow together.

Figure 1. The three lines in this graph represent the membership of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (○)[33],[34], yield of corn per acre in the U.S. (∆)[35], and milk produced per cow in the U.S. (◻)35 for the years 1820 to 2020.

Endnotes

[1] Antony Trewavas, “Malthus Foiled Again and Again,” Nature 418 (8 August 2002) : 668-670.

[2] Phyllis Deane, The First Industrial Revolution, 2d ed. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979), 207.

[3] Lester Brown, State of the World, annual ed.1984-2000 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute); Paul Ehrlich, Anne Ehrlich, and Gretchen Daily, The Stork and the Plow: The Equity Answer to the Human Dilemma (New Haven, CT: Yale Press, 1997); Jeffrey D. Sachs, “The Specter of Malthus Returns,” Scientific American (September 2008) :38.

[4] Much of the information about agriculture’s progress presented in this paper can be found on the United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service website http://www.ers.usda.gov.

[5] Angus Maddison, Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992 (Paris: OECD, 1995).

[6] William Bernstein, Birth of Plenty. (Blacklick, OH: McGraw-Hill Professional, 2004) vii.

[7] William Bernstein, Birth of Plenty. (Blacklick, OH: McGraw-Hill Professional, 2004) 3.

[8] William Bernstein, Birth of Plenty. (Blacklick, OH,: McGraw-Hill Professional, 2004) 15.

[9] William Bernstein, Birth of Plenty. (Blacklick, OH: McGraw-Hill Professional, 2004) 23.

[10] Ezra Taft Benson, Crossfire: The Eight Years With Eisenhower. (Garden City, NY: Doubleday & Company, Inc., 1962).

[11] John R. Campbell, Reclaiming a Lost Heritage. (Ames, IA:Iowa State University Press, 1995).

[12] Alan K. Parish, John A. Widtsoe: A Biography. (Salt Lake City: Deseret Book, 2003) 83.

[13] John A. Widtsoe, In A Sunlit Land. (Salt Lake City: Deseret News Press, 1952) 42, 73, 88, 98, 128.

[14] John A. Widtsoe, In A Sunlit Land. (Salt Lake City: Deseret News Press, 1952) 42-44.

[15] John A. Widtsoe, In A Sunlit Land. (Salt Lake City: Deseret News Press, 1952) 47-49.

[16] U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, http://www.epa.gov/oecaagct/ag101/demographics.html.

[17] American Farm Bureau Federation, http://www.fb.org.

[18] David B. Danbom, Born in the Country: A History of Rural America, (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2006), 234-239.

[19] Anon., “Borlaug’s Revolution,” Wall Street Journal (17 July 2007): A16.

[20] Andrew C. Fish and Larisa Rudenko, Feeding the World: A Look at Biotechnology and World Hunger (Washington, DC: Pew Initiative on Food and Biotechnology, 2004).

[21] N.A.S.S., http://www.nass.usda.gov; E.R.S., http://www.ers.usda.gov.

[22] Development and adoption of genetically enhanced plants are regularly reported at the Crop Biotech Update website http://www.isaaa.org/.

[23] N.A.S.S., http://www.nass.usda.gov

[24] Kathleen Kassel, James M. MacDonald, and Sun Ling Wang, “Productivity Growth Drives Expanded Agricultural Production,” Amber Waves 6 (4):40-41.

[25] Thomas L. Friedman, Hot, Flat, and Crowded (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2008), 62.

[26] Roger Loomis, “Mormon Church Growth”, presented at The Association for the Sociology of Religion (Chicago, IL; August 15-17, 2002), http://www.lds4u.com/growth2/Index.htm.; Daniel Ludlow, “Vital Statistics”, Encyclopedia of Mormonism (New York: Macmillan,1992).

[27] Brigham Young, November 13, 1870, Journal of Discourses 13:305.

[28] John A Widtsoe, “Preserve Our Heritage,” Conference Report (October 1949): 61-65.

[29] This paper has discussed agricultural progress primarily in the U.S. Further discussion of what has happened in the whole world is in many ways even more interesting. From 1960 until 2008, worldwide food prices fell by more than 50 percent, total food production rose more than 250 percent, per capita food production rose more than 40 percent, and the number of undernourished people in developing countries decreased by more than 10 percent (United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization). Some countries that were of great concern to development agencies just a few years ago have become net exporters of grain.

[30] Steven Pinker, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress (New York: Penguin Random House, 2018).

[31] Hans Rosling, Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World-and Why Things Are Better Than You Think (New York: Flatiron Books, 2018)

[32] Julius Simon, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/5.02/ffsimon_pr.html

[33] 2013 Church Almanac, (Salt Lake City: Deseret Book, 2013).

[34] Statistical Reports, www.mormonnewsroom.org

[35] E.R.S., http://www.ers.usda.gov